By: Charles Roop | WCTV Eyewitness News
November 22, 2017
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — It’s that time of year where most of us sit down with our family and friends to enjoy a feast of turkey, mashed potatoes, green beans and…mmmm turkey. But if you have any thoughts of having activities outside, you may want to rethink that as rain is in the forecast for part of the four-day-long, turkey-stuffed, football-rivalry-filled, Black-Friday-shop-until-you-drop weekend.
An upper-level trough was digging into the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, aiding in some lift ahead of it over the central and eastern Gulf. At the surface, a low was developing. There was also a stalled frontal boundary to our south. Satellite imagery showed cloudiness over the eastern Gulf, with the radar showing showers in the eastern gulf. This rain is expected to make its way towards the Big Bend Wednesday night.
Last weekend, the American GFS and European models were both hinting of some development in the Gulf of Mexico, but the models handled the northern extent of the rain differently. It seems that the GFS has come on board with the Euro’s rain coverage. This means that confidence is high that we’ll see rain move into our area Wednesday night into Thursday.
The greatest odds of heavier rainfall will be in our eastern areas - including Perry, Live Oak, and Cross City. Below is the GFS run.
Rain chances will be elevated starting tonight through Thanksgiving, with the greatest odds higher rain totals in our eastern areas. Most of the models reflect this pattern. #flwx #gawx pic.twitter.com/vzLaTSM4Kl— Charles Roop (@CharlesRoopWCTV) November 22, 2017
The Euro goes a bit higher on the rainfall overall - especially in our eastern areas and out to North Central Florida. It’s safe to say that our eastern areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with higher isolated amounts. Places west of Perry, Live Oak, and Jasper could see less than an inch with isolated higher amounts.
The rain is expected to fizzle out over the central and western areas Thursday night into Friday morning. The aforementioned eastern areas could still see rain as one waits in line for Black Friday sales early Friday morning. But conditions will begin to dry out during the daylight hours Friday. The only monkey wrench is the Futurecast (RPM) model keeping rain around a bit longer on Friday for much of our area. Based on other solutions I am seeing, I am calling this model projection an outlier.
Saturday looks to be a nice day across the region as high pressure brings in cool, drier air. Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid 40s with the high reaching the mid 70s. Highs will be in the mid 70s in Gainesville with partly cloudy skies for the Florida and FSU game.
Nice weather will persist Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 70s and the morning low near 50.
Enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend, everyone.