We are still on track to get very close to record territory today. It's 77 degrees at 2 PM, but most likely we will fall 2 or 3 degrees short of the 82 degree record.
The cold front is still on track to reach us on Thanksgiving Day. There is a closed upper-level low over Baja California that will get kicked in our direction. It will be ejected by the progressive trough that is moving through the western United States. Rain is likely to start on Wednesday night and continue on occasion through Thanksgiving Day. There is a threat of thunderstorms, too. It is not impossible for one or two storms to reach severe limits, but instability will be limited because of extensive cloud cover. We hope to get more specific about this threat tomorrow when the details become clearer.
Friday and the first part of Saturday look okay for the moment, but it will be noticeably cooler. We think that the cold front will return north as a warm front either late Saturday or Sunday with another threat of showers. Another, but this time stronger, upper air disturbance will swing in from the west. We expect severe weather somewhere in the deep south late this weekend or early next week, but the models disagree on exactly where the upper air impulse will end up.
As always, all of the maps and details are in the video to your right.