We are going to stay tranquil this weekend thanks to a large high pressure dome that stretches from Hudson Bay southward to the Gulf of Mexico. This high will slowly edge eastward, so the winds in the lower atmosphere will begin to shift to a more southeasterly direction tonight and Sunday. The RPM and locally-run WRF model forecast the development of low clouds (i.e. stratus) late tonight and early Sunday morning. These two models trap a shallow column of Atlantic and Gulf moisture beneath a subsidence inversion. The GFS and NAM models are also showing this moisture, but the relative humidities in those models are not as high, so those models seem to be hinting at patchy low clouds. As heating commences on Sunday, the morning clouds will gradually break up, leaving us with a mixture of puffy clouds and sunshine. A light southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico should allow temperatures to climb well into the 70s in most interior locales. Coastal areas will hold in the lower to mid 70s (the water temperature is 70).
A large storm is ongoing in the Rockies and it's now starting to spill out into the Plains. Unfortunately, almost all of the large-scale lift associated with this storm is forecast to move into the Mid Atlantic and New England states by Monday. The cold front associated with this mess is expected to reach us on Monday morning, but just some clouds and perhaps a few brief light rain showers is what we can expect (at the most). Clearing will be well underway Monday afternoon, then the winds will gradually diminish Monday night as a cooler surface high spans out along the Gulf coast. The airmass looks cold enough for a brief duration light freeze on Tuesday morning, mainly in the loam sandy soil belt that stretches from the southside of Tallahassee through northern Taylor, southern Madison, and the Suwannee Valley region. All other areas should stay a few degrees above freezing, but a frost will be possible. After a cool Tuesday afternoon, we should experience near-average afternoon high temperatures and near or below-average morning low temperatures through the end of the upcoming week.
Since today is the first day of December, it's always useful to recap the month that just passed us.
In November (at Tallahassee), the average temperature was 2.2 degrees below average. 1.22 inches of rain fell during the month; that's 2.64 inches below the monthly average. Our highest temperature last month was 83 degrees on the 1st and the lowest was 26 on the 17th. In summary, it was a dry and cool month.