WCTV | Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta | News, Weather, Sports

Sunday Morning Weather Blog

By: Meteorologist Ray Hawthorne Email
By: Meteorologist Ray Hawthorne Email

An increasingly amplified pattern is becoming established over the United States late this weekend. A large trough extends from the Northern Rockies to Southern California, while a ridge gets stronger over the southeastern quarter of the country. A weak high-level impulse embedded within the ridge moved across our area Saturday night, but is now moving off of the Florida and Georgia Atlantic coastline. Sinking air in its wake will leave us with partly to mostly sunny skies today. A surface high pressure is channeling down the eastern seaboard and the models agree that our winds will be more southeasterly (instead of southerly) today because of the orientation of this high. A straight southerly wind from Apalachee Bay can hold temperatures down a couple of degrees since the water temperatures are at or below 70 degrees. However, a southeasterly flow is more of a land breeze from the peninsula of Florida (except in Franklin, western Wakulla, and Liberty counties). Because of this subtle change in the wind, I believe most areas will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Most inland areas should achieve 80 degrees or better, but immediate coastal areas will only reach the lower and mid 70s.

The last couple of runs from our workstation WRF computer model is showing a surge of high relative humidities (greater than 90%) in the lowest several hundred feet of the atmosphere moving from the Northeast and East-Central coast of Florida toward the Suwannee River Valley and Southeastern Big Bend early Monday morning. The model might be picking up on a fog bank, but these are notoriously hard to forecast even several hours in advance. Since the low-level flow will be from the Atlantic, it seems likely that our eastern counties will be more susceptible to widespread fog and low clouds than our western counties. We will need to watch this carefully later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, skies should become partly to mostly sunny again on Monday. We will be repeating this pattern (i.e. low clouds/fog in the morning and sunshine in the afternoon) through Thursday. Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s and highs will be around 80 degrees away from the immediate coast. These numbers are around 10 degrees above average for mid December.

There are finally indications that the deep-layer ridge will break down to some degree by next weekend. This might finally allow a cold front to reach us from the northwest either late Friday or early Saturday. Cooler and perhaps showery/unsettled weather will be in store some time next weekend if the latest models are correct.

In the meantime, we will be near record high temperatures over the next few days. Here is a list of those records and our forecast through Wednesday:

---TODAY---
Forecast High: 80
Record High: 81

---MONDAY---
Forecast High: 80
Record High: 83

---TUESDAY---
Forecast High: 80
Record High: 81

---WEDNESDAY---
Forecast High: 80
Record High: 82


WCTV 1801 Halstead Blvd. Tallahassee, FL 32309
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 12291101 - wctv.tv/a?a=12291101