A $140,000 grant awarded to FSU professor, Dr. James. Elsner, is aimed at getting to the bottom of global warming's role on hurricane frequency and intensity.
The two-year grant will allow Elsner to develop statistical models based on past data to understand how changes in the climate influence the probability of strong hurricane winds in certain locations. He has already developed risk models for the U.S. coast as a whole, but this project focuses on developing models that will allow researchers to examine the risk over smaller areas, such as cities or sensitive coastal ecosystems.
He says it's possible that hurricane intensity will increase over the planet as a whole, but that it's also possible that certain regions, such as Florida, will see a decrease.
The project builds on Elsner's research to better understand and predict the threat of hurricanes, which is important for government and industry if they are to accurately assess and manage catastrophic risk.