Monday Weather Blog: Popup Evening Showers Possible

By: Meteorologists Ray Hawthorne and Mike McCall Email
By: Meteorologists Ray Hawthorne and Mike McCall Email

Moisture in the lower part of the atmosphere has been stubborn today. Late afternoon visible satellite imagery still shows an abundance of stratocumulus clouds, but there are some breaks especially in Southwest Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley. A few showers have developed just ahead of a weak backdoor front just southwest of Albany and near Blakely, GA. The latest objective mesoanalysis depicts an area of modest instability over the western part of our viewing area, primarily west of Thomasville and Tallahassee. As a result, a couple more showers or even a brief thundershower are most likely to develop in Southwest Georgia and in Gadsden, Liberty and Franklin counties through early this evening. Even in these areas, the rain will not be widespread because of dry air in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere. A stray shower could develop elsewhere in our viewing area, but far more areas will miss out on the rain than those that do get some.

The high ground moisture and developing easterly winds from the Atlantic behind the backdoor front will create an environment favorable for low clouds and patchy fog late tonight and Tuesday morning. It may take until around midday for some areas to break into the sunshine, but once that happens we are in for a seasonably warm day. Highs should still get to around 80 degrees.

A weak disturbance could touch off a brief shower on Wednesday, but the chances are getting lower with each passing model run. Otherwise, a deep-layer ridge of high pressure will build over the Southeastern United States between Wednesday and Friday. This will allow afternoon temperatures to poke into the lower and mid 80s.

A stronger trough is expected to arrive Friday night or Saturday. There are questions regarding deep-layer moisture return, but the highest threat of showers (or thunderstorms) over the next 5 days appears to, once again, be on Saturday. There are signs of much cooler temperatures behind the front on Sunday and next Monday. In fact, the latest GFS shows a low of 42 on Monday morning and 39 on Tuesday morning. It remains to been seen whether it gets this cold, but the global models are suggestive of a significant pattern change in about a week.

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