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HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY & DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 71.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

=============================================

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THE EYE OF IRENE WAS MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 75 KT. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY 24 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED WINDS THAT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 80 KT. THE PRESSURE DROPPED ABOUT A MILLIBAR
ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 976 MB ON THE LASS PASS
AROUND 1830 UTC. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS EVENING.

THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. AFTER THAT...IT IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS IRENE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/8 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 20.9N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.5N 72.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 22.7N 74.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.2N 75.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 30.0N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 34.0N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 39.0N 74.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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