By Charles E. Roop
Aug. 18, 2014
A small tropical disturbance in the Atlantic between the west African coast and the Lesser Antilles has a 30 percent chance of development in the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The disturbance does have some fighting to do, though.
Development of the tropical wave, as most disturbances in the eastern Atlantic so far this year, is being inhibited by dry air. The Saharan Air Layer, which contains dry and sometimes dusty air, has been a problem for tropical development.
In the near term, tropical development is at 10 percent. The shear is expected to remain relatively low across in the area and the sea surface temperatures are warm, but the dry air ahead could be a challenge for the disturbance. The wave will continue to be watched, but development doesn't look likely in the near term.