Thursday Afternoon Tropical Weather Outlook

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE LOUISIANA COAST IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.
THE LOW IS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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