Tropical Depression Lee LAST Advisory

By: National Hurricane Center / Pinpoint Weather Team
By: National Hurricane Center / Pinpoint Weather Team

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...LEE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 91.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF LEE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS LEE BECOMES AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE ALONG
THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR LOCATION-SPECIFIC STORM TIDE
AND STORM SURGE INFORMATION.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LEE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON LEE CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...BEGINNING AT
400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

=======================

...LEE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 91.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES... 445 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH... 72 KM/H AND A GUST TO 49 MPH...79 KM/H. NUMEROUS OFFSHORE OIL RIGS
ALSO CONTINUE TO REPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A STORM SURGE VALUE OF MORE THAN 4 FEET RECENTLY OCCURRED JUST SOUTH OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AT AMERADA PASS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND COASTAL MONITORING STATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCUSSION:
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE FINALLY MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AROUND 11Z ABOUT 10 NMI SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. RECENT DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE FORMED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THESE BANDS HAVE CONTAINED DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 65-72 KT FROM 8000-12000 FT IN 35-45 DBZ ECHOES...WITH MEAN VALUES OF AT LEAST 60 KT. ALTHOUGH THESE DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES WOULD TYPICALLY EQUATE TO SURFACE
WINDS OF 50-55 KT...THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THESE NEW CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGESTS THAT ANY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE VERYTRANSIENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42040...BUT THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT FROM THE STANDARD 50-KT GUST VALUE IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER DOPPLER VELOCITIES THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

LEE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 040/03 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. LEE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER THAT...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT LEE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED... BUT STILL AT LESS THAN 10 KT. BY 48 HOURS...LEE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FAIRLY BRISK FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND
BECOME A LARGE SLOW-MOVING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT THE FORWARD SPEED WAS DECREASED AFTER 48 HOURS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS... TVCN AND TVCA.

LEE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE RAIN-SATURATED FLAT TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER WATER. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD ALSO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER LAND AND NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...WHICH COULD ADD SOME ENERGY TO THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY THAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE FOR INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONES.

SINCE HEAVY RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE VALUES ARE OCCURRING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF LEE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM LEE WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 29.9N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0000Z 30.1N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 30.6N 90.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 31.4N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 32.6N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1200Z 34.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z 36.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE: 9:30 am Sunday September 4

Tropical Storm Lee is at the Coast of Louisianna. It is moving VERY slowly and dumping inches of rain!

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS, LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN, AND LAKE MAUREPAS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 92.5W AT 04/0900Z. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

12 FT SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
------------------------------------------------------------
Discussion:
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE IS
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. LEE
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FLAT TERRAIN OF EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER
WATER. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY
THAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS OR
SOONER...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION TO HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT TIME. BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM
THOSE SAME GLOBAL MODELS...DISSIPATION IS LIKELY AFTER 96 HOURS.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT OR ABOUT 360/2. LEE IS IN A
COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...I.E. WITHIN VERY WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS...AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND VERY
SIMILAR THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS FORECAST.

SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE
CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
CENTER OF LEE.

--------------------------------------------------------
LEE STILL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST. LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER.

REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

=========================================================
LEE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MEANDERS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 92.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST.
LEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. SEVERAL ELEVATED OFFSHORE OIL RIGS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 44 AND 48 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

=========================================================
SOGGY LEE LUMBERING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN OFFSHORE OIL RIG SOUTH OF SABINE PASS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 50 MPH...81 KM/H AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...90 KM/H AT AN ELEVATION OF 230 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.

REPORTS FROM OFFSHORE OIL RIGS AND LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY COASTAL OBSERVING SITES INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES WELL INLAND OVER LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY AN OIL RIG JUST SOUTH OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH AND A GUST TO 67 MPH AT 200 FEET ELEVATION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS. A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 4 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA...AND A SURGE HEIGHT OF 2.4 FEET WAS REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
===========================================================
Tropical Storm Lee struggled this evening with some upper level shear and dry air intrusion from Texas. Some new thunderstorms have fired up since then to the east of the center, so some slow strengthening is still possible. Heaviest rain has been over SE Louisiana and coast Mississippi. Still looks like best chance of rain for our area will be Sunday afternoon into Monday.
===============================
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IN SUMMARY SECTION

...LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 91.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND
GUST TO 41 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW
ORLEANS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 1000 MB...29.53
INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN**Tropical Storm Lee still just drifting toward the Louisiana coast. Drier air on the west side is keeping it from strengthening much. Still just a big rainmaker for Lousiana the next two days. Good chance of rain expected locally on Sunday and Monday. 2-4" likely over the western half of the area, while only 1-2" may occur over the eastern half (eastern Big Bend / southcentral Georgia).

==============================
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 91.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED ON AN OIL RIG LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AN ALTITUDE A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY OIL RIGS IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE WARNING AREA OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL LOODING WITHIN THESE AREAS. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

==========================================================
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 91.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2
MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL
RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
==========================================================

**Very surprising this system isn't LEE yet. Very broad area of low pressure, but lots of rain is still expected with this over the weekend.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WINDS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
=========================================================
** T.D. THIRTEEN isn't Tropical Storm LEE just yet... likely to become so this morning... RAIN is going to be the big issue with this, not surge or wind... and our area should get at the very least some decent rains by Sunday and maybe lasting for a few days. **

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

========================================================
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 1
MPH...2 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

----------------------------
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
=============================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY...EXPECTED TO DRENCH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
========================================
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO
SABINE PASS TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA


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