***There are several factors that are influencing this forecast. Please check back here periodically for updates***
UPDATE (10:30 AM 10-17)
There are lots of questions about the potential for nasty weather in the Big Bend of Florida and southern Georgia on Tuesday. The focus of this forecast will rely heavily on the broad area of tropical low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits.
As of now, the National Hurricane Center is planning to send a Air Force Reconnaissance plane to investigate. They put the chance of this low forming into a tropical depression or storm at 60%. There are several atmospheric factors that may prevent this area from becoming better organized, but no matter what, this could be a major rain-maker for the area.
It all depends on the track of this tropical low. If it continues on a straight north path, we could see some very significant rainfall with the isolated chance for strong to severe weather, with strong winds being the main threats. However, if the low takes a more easterly track, we could be on the drier side of things on Tuesday.
This track will definitely be influenced by a cold front currently moving through the Midwest U.S. right now. If the front takes its time getting here, the better chance we have for the low to continue on a northerly track and impact us more on Tuesday. If the front speeds up, it will most likely pick up this area of low pressure and scoot it quickly east through the peninsula of Florida, leaving us with just a scattering of showers on Tuesday.
Right now, the forecast is very up in the air, but stay tuned later today and Mike McCall will have a better idea on the potential impacts. No matter what happens on Tuesday, we cool down big time starting Wednesday.