Weekly Weather Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...
The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed the cold front that
passed through our forecast area Wednesday morning now across
central FL, and moving away as a 1028 mb high (centered over
Arkansas) built across the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a trough exiting off the U.S. east coast, a broad ridge
over much of the CONUS, and a trough moving ashore the U.S. west
coast. In our current large scale weather pattern of amplified
systems propagating fairly quickly from west to east, this west
coast trough is scheduled to affect our region Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday) Despite the fact that 500 mb heights will
be quickly rising later today and Friday, surface temperatures will
remain near climatology levels (and well below the record warmth
observed the past several days). The coldest temperatures are
expected Friday morning, with upper 30s in the normally colder
inland sites (mid-upper 40s at the coast). Highs today and Friday
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected Saturday ahead of the next cold front
approaching from the west. At this time we do not expect enough
moisture return or large scale forcing for rain chances above
10 percent during the daytime hours on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday) The main item of interest
continues to be the next trough that is forecast to affect the area
late in the weekend. Compared to last night, the 24/00z GFS has sped
up the timing of this system to more of a Saturday night/Sunday
morning event. The 24/00z UKMET also concurs with the Saturday
night/Sunday morning timing. In contrast, the 24/00z Euro has gone
the other direction and now develops a cutoff upper level low over
Louisiana on Monday. This is a far western outlier that none of the
other guidance supports at this time, and it would be a pretty
unusual solution if it verified. The faster trend seen in the
majority of the guidance matches up with what is seen in the 00z GFS
ensemble data. Given the slightly faster trend and discounting the
00z run of the Euro, the PoPs for Saturday night were raised and the
PoPs for Sunday night were lowered. The residual 20 PoP for Monday
was replaced with a silent 10 PoP.

The forecast instability with this system continues to look
weak. A stubborn surface ridge just off the Carolina coast is
forecast to keep the surface winds backed to a more southeasterly
direction, which is expected to limit the amount of time for a more
favorable due southerly return flow off the Gulf ahead of the front.
Although a slight chance of thunderstorms was retained for the
Saturday night/Sunday morning period, the severe weather chance
continues to look minimal with this event. However, if a greater
amount of return flow and instability were to occur across the area,
then the severe weather chance would increase.

Behind the front, significantly cooler air is expected with highs
remaining in the 60s on Sunday and possibly the lower 60s on Monday
in some areas. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid 30s
on Sunday night and Monday night with dry conditions prevailing
through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas have yet to reach advisory levels, but they are
close enough to leave our small craft advisory up through mid
morning. A similar event is possible tonight and early Friday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although critical relative humidity values below 35 percent are
likely to be met across portions of inland north Florida this
afternoon, the remaining criteria necessary for a red flag warning
are not expected to be met. Having said that, dispersions are
forecast to be just below the 75 threshold needed for red flag
criteria, so it will be close. After today, relative humidity values
are currently forecast to remain above critical levels through early
next week.


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