Tuesday Evening Tropical Weather Discusson

AXNT20 KNHC 032320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 36W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N.
THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 30W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30NM RADIUS OF 10N36W. MORE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF
16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL EXHIBITS A WEAK INVERTED
V-SHAPE IN ITS LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. 24 HOUR PRESSURE
DIFFERENCES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE 1 MB LOWER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR BARBADOS
FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 59W-61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND
OVER NE VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 61W-66W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 18N MOVING W 15
KT. THIS WAVE IS CHALLENGING TO TRACK. ITS CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING S OF 14N. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA
FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 69W-78W. THIS CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 1W-12W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 12W-18W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER FLORIDA FROM 25N-31N. A 1007
MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 22N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO
RIDGING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER S TEXAS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 22N. STRONG UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 22N. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE ABOVE. A
1007 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N94W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA
...AND EL SALVADOR FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 88W-95W. ELSEWHERE...
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER ERN HONDURAS...ERN NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NRN COLUMBIA AND N WRN VENEZUELA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 71W-75W. IN GENERAL...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING
IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION W OF 70W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODS/MUDSLIDES MAY CONTINUE OVER S MEXICO...AND GUATEMALA
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG
31N68W 29N73W 31N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30NM OF THE
FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N66W 27N72W. A LARGE 1032
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N37W
DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 20N AND W OF
50W. TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE NEAR 28N71W AND 32N54W. A
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 25W.

$$
WALTON/FORMOSA


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