Wednesday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 042353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 20N IS MOVING W 5 KT. WAVE
PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A SMALL LOW/MID
LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 16N MOVING W
15 KT. MIMIC-TPW SHOWS THE WAVE TO BE BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND NO INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR...THUS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS BROAD
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CLUSTERS...THUS MASKING THE WAVE AXIS.
THEREFORE THE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 3N21W 5N42W 5N53W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 7N21W TO 10N19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND S TEXAS TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS UNDERCUTTING THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR
24N90W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE S GULF INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S MEXICO...
THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND W CUBA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS. THE 1006 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ARTHUR...REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ BUT IS
LOSING MOST OF ITS IDENTITY AND WILL BE DROPPED ON THE 05/0000
UTC MAP. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO JUST ACROSS
FLORIDA AND COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US
IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GULF N OF 23N IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THAT AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME
AREA. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATE COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
PUSHING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA S INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER JAMAICA E FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 74W-77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP OF CUBA
TO NEAR 18N75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO INTO
THE ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED SW TO
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE
E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM 24N71W ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP OF
CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W TO BEYOND 32N53W. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-71W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
26N59W 21N62W AND SHOWS UP WELL ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS BUT IS
FAIRLY HIDDEN BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LARGE
UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N29W BUT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND HAS NO SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TO JUST OVER
FLORIDA AND ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N OF
THE REGION. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS.

$$
WALLACE


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