Thursday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 052333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 15W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING E TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. HOWEVER...THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS NO SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 20N IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A SMALL LOW
LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 46W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 17N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE
SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N16W 9N21W 2N35W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-10N AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 4N31W TO 6N38W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 2W-17W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
COVERS THE GULF N OF 26N WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W
CUBA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER S MEXICO...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE
MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF BUT WITH THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO
SE LOUISIANA AND COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
COVER ALL BUT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
ACROSS THE ALL BUT THAT AREA.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND
RE-ENFORCED BY AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NESTLED BETWEEN CUBA...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DEEPENING THE TROUGH
TO THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S VENEZUELA COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N TO ACROSS
CUBA AND JAMAICA PREVENTING THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH TOO FAR INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
INDICATED BY LIGHTENING DATA ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N57W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N66W
CONTINUING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 25N65W
TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING OFF SHORE TO 21N
BETWEEN 68W-73W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S VENEZUELA THROUGH
THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND
32N46W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 60W-66W. LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 29N27W BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR AND IS
NOT PRODUCING ANY ADVERSE WEATHER. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES AND N
OF THE REGION. TYPICAL UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE


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