Thursday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 191746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE
MAP AND IS ALONG 20W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. RECENT
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATES WAVE HAS MOVED OFF OF W AFRICA SINCE
YESTERDAY MORNING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. NO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND ANY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS THE WAVE
VERY WELL WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE THU INTO FRI...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE FRI.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N19W 6N23W INTO NRN BRAZIL
NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
23W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
18W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER NRN MEXICO COVERING THE FAR NW
GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
THAT DOMINATES THE ERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH NRN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS AND N
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS AIDING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SRN
FLORIDA EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WRN CUBA TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK RIDGING PROVIDING THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
RIDGE COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS ITS BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AFFECTING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXTEND FROM WRN
CUBA TO ALONG THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE COASTLINE.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 77W-83W. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW
OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON PRODUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS
USUAL JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ALSO MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W/55W IS EXPECTED TO
USHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE
THU.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US AND W ATLC WITH A NARROW
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1010 MB LOW IS
LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N72W WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLC TO N FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N54W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING
FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
14N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY
A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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