Monday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 232354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 6N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO E
VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 62W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SCATTERED TSTMS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE WAVE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
WILL REACH DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY TUE AND EASTERN CUBA EARLY
WED. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODEL...THE WAVE MAY AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WED INTO THU. OBSERVATIONS E OF THE WAVE AND FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE E INDICATE THAT A WIND SURGE OF 20
TO 25 KT FOLLOWS THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
SE MEXICO ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THERE. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 91W/92W. PART OF THIS WAVE ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE EPAC
WHERE IS GENERATING SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N25W 6N34W 5N40W 5N50W INTO
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER GUINEA BISSAU AFRICA AND OVER N SOUTH
AMERICA PARTICULARLY OVER SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-31W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N
AXIS BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE MEXICO. SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. A RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF REGION WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
28N89W. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF REGION. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH A COLD LOW N OF THE
AREA...CENTERED NEAR 27N61W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH ORIENTED
FROM SE TO NW. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
HAS BROKEN OUT OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...FROM THE NORTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES WESTWARD THROUGH HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE
AFFECTING PARTS OF CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A HIGH JUST E OF BARBADOS COVERS N SOUTH AMERICA AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE TROPICAL WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN FLORIDA IS MOVING INTO THE
FAR WESTERN ATLC. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST REGION SOUTH OF THE 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
NEAR 32N50W. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER
THIS AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS MAINLY E-W ACROSS THE E
AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N27W TO
ANOTHER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N61W. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH LIES A
RIDGE WHICH COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICS. DIFFLUENT AROUND THIS
FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.

OF NOTE...THE WEEK OF JUNE 22-28 HAS BEEN DESIGNATED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS LIGHTNING AWARENESS WEEK. FLORIDIANS
ARE WELL AWARE OF THE DANGERS POSED BY LIGHTNING, AS FLORIDA
TYPICALLY LEADS THE NATION IN LIGHTNING STRIKES AND DEATHS
CAUSED BY LIGHTNING. THE MAIN THING TO REMEMBER REGARDING
LIGHTNING SAFETY IS: GO INDOORS! BEGIN OUTSIDE IS NEVER SAFE
DURING A THUNDERSTORM!.

$$
GR


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