Tuesday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
WAVE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 71W S OF 20N. WAVE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS APPEARS TO BE MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE BETWEEN 65W AND 73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE WAVE
FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA ARE IN
THE THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW JUST TO THE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 95W S OF 21N
MOVING W 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE MOVING OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 93W-97W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 5N35W 10N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N56W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 12N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 51W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
N OF THE ITCZ FROM 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E US INTO THE W/CENTRAL GULF
NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO S MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS
IS SUPPLYING THE E GULF WITH ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE
ACTIVITY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
83W-87W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY N OF 27 TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
AND W OF 93W TO INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC OVER THE GULF AND CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THAT
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS
HONDURAS OVER W/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA N
OF 12N W OF 81W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN
THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO 12N79W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY N OF 17N W OF 74W. THE ITCZ
CROSSES THE S CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC OVER THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 10N
TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND IS ENHANCE BY THE UPPER
TROUGH/RIDGE. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL
CUBA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N78W PROVIDING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND CONTINUING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 77W INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. A BROADER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
32N59W AGAIN PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN
71W-77W. OTHERWISE THE MOST PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
REMAINS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN
EXTENDING FROM 28N27W THROUGH 21N43W 24N61W THEN SW INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ACTIVITY JUST N OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM AFRICA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N53W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY STABLE AIR ALSO
DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
TONIGHT. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF AFRICAN DUST TRANSVERSING
THE ATLC S OF 22N FROM AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.

$$
WALLACE


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