Tuesday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 242340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N. THE
MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS PARTICULARLY NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE
ITCZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATE FRI INTO SAT.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W
S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA AS WELL AS OVER WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. OBSERVATIONS AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
INDICATE THAT A WIND SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FOLLOWS THIS WAVE.
MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
CUBA AND JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS EARLY WED.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 96W IS NOW OVER THE
EPAC ALONG 97W. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION EASTERN PACIFIC...TWDEP.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 7N25W 6N40W 5N50W INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST COVERING THE AREA
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 13W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE
GUYANAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
18W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIES OVER THE GULF STRETCHING FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE SUPPLYING THE E GULF AND FLORIDA WITH
ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SFC TROUGH WAS
ANALYZED AT 21Z. LIGHTNING DATA REVEALS SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...OVER THE E GULF IN THE VICINITY OF 26N86W
AND ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF
WITH A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS PROVIDING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A NARROW BAND OF 15-20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE BASIN. AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS HONDURAS
OVER W/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND IS
ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL
CUBA TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 31N35W THEN CONTINUES
SW TO NEAR 21N45W. AT THIS POINT...THE TROUGH EXTENDS W AND THEN
NW TO ANOTHER COLD LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N65W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH...
THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE TROPICS FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM AFRICA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N55W. A
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WHICH IS ALSO PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY
FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE SW AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
GR


WCTV 1801 Halstead Blvd. Tallahassee, FL 32309
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 21051309 - wctv.tv/a?a=21051309
Gray Television, Inc.