Thursday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WEAK INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY SMALL
LOW-AMPLITUDE BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE BETWEEN 49W-54W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE A
NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF 18N ACROSS ERN
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH FRI ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 3N44W 4N50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N43W TO 9N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE GULF STRETCHING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AREA IN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REGION INTO THE W ATLC TO OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS.
SWLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS
SUPPLYING THE E GULF AND FLORIDA WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THESE DIFFLUENT UPPER WINDS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SERN GULF WATERS. LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SERN GULF E OF 91W
AND S OF 27N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N69W. UNDER THIS PATTERN...E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF WITH A NARROW BAND OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND WRN CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND
30N75W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BETWEEN
THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING TRANSPORTED FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W
MENTIONED ABOVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WRN PANAMA TO HONDURAS AS WELL AS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 82W-88W INCLUDING THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA OFFSHORE OF WRN PANAMA AND ERN COSTA RICA DUE MAINLY IN PART
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS WRN CUBA TO
OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 50W-60W EXTENDS TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N60W. TROUGHING THEN EXTENDS SW AND
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN
90 NM E OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA FROM
32N59W TO NEAR 29N65W. LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 32N42W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W TO
21N42W. UPPER HIGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N53W WITH
THE RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST. ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER MOROCCO
EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC FORECAST AREA ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N54W. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WHICH IS ALSO PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN


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