Friday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S
OF 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SRN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED BY THE MIMIC-TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND PRIMARILY POSITIONED BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 54W-57W AND ALSO OVER SRN GUYANA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA AT 10-15 KT. A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 17N IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND PRIMARILY ON THE WRN
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 13N20W 11N23W 5N40W TO S
AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 13W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 19W-29W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PINCHING OFF IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR
25N93W. S TO SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
CAPE HATTERAS AND IS ADVECTING DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE ERN GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GULF E OF 93W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 88W-92W. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SE
10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LOW IS STAGNANT TO MOVE MUCH AND REMAIN OVER THE WRN GULF
WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA IS
YIELDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE REGION OF STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SIMILAR
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER ERN HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THIS
CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AS
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE
WRN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 75W. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM ERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NRN COLOMBIA.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
AIDING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. IN ADDITION...A
ZONAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC CENTERED ALONG 30N COUPLED WITH
LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS PROVIDING A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE W ATLC. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF
THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR W ATLC N OF 27N AND W OF 73W. FURTHER EAST A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC EXTENDS BROAD TROUGHING SWD TO NEAR 22N
BETWEEN 45W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 37N32W SW OF
THE AZORES. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF STRONG TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
HUFFMAN


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