Tuesday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND
WAS ADDED TO THE 01/06Z ANALYSIS ALONG 16W/17W S OF 18N
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS SITUATED
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N...VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS RATHER VIGOROUS EXHIBITING WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 01/06Z ANALYSIS ALONG 29W/30W S
OF 20N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. HOWEVER...THE FIRST FEW
VIS IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE AXIS IS TITLED NW-SE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FARTHER W. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE AND SOUNDING
DATA...THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR ON SUN AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
EARLY MON. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE IS AMPLIFIED...DEEP
CONVECTION OR EVEN ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS IS MINIMAL.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE WAVES TO ITS E...BUT IT MAY BE
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS EASY TO LOCATE AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD DISPLAY
A BROAD INVERTED-V SHAPE. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE N PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 14N MOVING W
15 KT. THIS POSITION IS PRIMARILY BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AS
LITTLE SIGNATURE IS APPARENT IN MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W S OF 20N MOVING W
15 KT. THE CLASSIC NE TO SE WIND SHIFT SHOWS UP NICELY ALONG THE
N PORTION OF THE WAVE AS REVEALED BY BUOY 42056 AND A PAIR OF
SHIP OBS. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN
THE ELY TRADES BEHIND THE AXIS. THE INTERACTION WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 82W-87W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N17W 8N31W 5N39W 7N51W 6N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BROAD RIDGING LIES OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DRIVEN BY W TO NW UPPER FLOW. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THERE
ARE A FEW FEATURES THAT ARE CAUSING ENHANCED LIFT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SE GULF...BUT MUCH OF THIS
HAS SHIFTED INTO THE W ATLC WITH ONLY LEFTOVER ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE SE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR
THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS N OF 28N W OF 89W ASSOCIATED
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE NE WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK
SFC TROUGH. OTHERWISE...AN OVERALL WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IS
ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE N GULF AND
MAINLY OUT OF THE NE/E ACROSS THE S WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS S FROM AN UPPER LOW E
OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 13N75W. WHILE DRY AIR IS
LOCATED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
LOCATED BOTH TO ITS E AND W. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
ZONE CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 82W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 79W ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN INCREASE IN ELY
TRADES (20-25 KT) E OF THE AXIS...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED AREA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
CONSISTING OF MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE E
GULF AND A NARROW MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 76W.
OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS QUIET DESPITE A SERIES OF
UPPER LOWS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. AT THE SFC...RIDGE ALONG 35N IS
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MID TO UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 16N/17N. MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ESPECIALLY THE VIGOROUS ONE
NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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