Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Tuesday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 020012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W S
OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1010 MB SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N...VERY NEAR A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS
RATHER VIGOROUS EXHIBITING WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 17W-20W.
THIS WAVE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. SOME LOW
LEVEL CLOUD TURNING IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
LOW IN AMPLITUDE WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE
HAS A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. A LOW
IS FORMING ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 54W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 15N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS POSITION IS PRIMARILY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS
LITTLE SIGNATURE IS APPARENT. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 88W S OF 17N MOVING W
15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ADVECTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 8N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-92W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 10N33W 7N45W 10N54W
10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES
ALONG 19W AND 54W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 20W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 23W-33W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO S TEXAS ALONG 30N81W
28N85W 28N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 79W-82W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 93W-99W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W CUBA W OF 80W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN YUCATAN FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN
87W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. ZONAL FLOW IS S
OF 25N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD OF AIRMASS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
73W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
W OF 75W...AND E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 72W-80W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N57W. ANOTHER 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N70W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N48W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N25W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
16N45W.

$$
FORMOSA


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