Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Wednesday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC IS JUST EAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE WITH
WELL DEFINED 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 19W-23W. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO MINIMAL
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS A WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOTED NEAR 14N60W
JUST EAST OF ST LUCIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 59W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND CHALLENGING TO
LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 19N MOVING W 15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 92W-95W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N22W 10N33W 6N42W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 16W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA N OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
80W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM
28N-30N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF LOUISIANA
FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 92W-95W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NRN YUCATAN FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. ZONAL
FLOW IS S OF 25N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER MOST OF
THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA
EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 79W-80W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 72W-75W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W. ANOTHER 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 19N43W.

$$
FORMOSA


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