TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

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WTNT42 KNHC 030859
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG
BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES ARE
ALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK
AGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT.

MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE
TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL
THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS
THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS KEEP A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE FIVE MODELS ABOVE BUT JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THAT
CONSENSUS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM...SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE
STABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK...SSTS
DROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
THEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING STRENGTHENING
AT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE
SHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 12.6N 22.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.0N 24.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 13.8N 27.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 14.7N 30.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 40.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 51.0W 55 KT


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