Friday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE...THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF THE WAVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR OTHER FORECASTING TOOLS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N38W 7N42W TO 4N44W MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 6N-10N AS INDICATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE AS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BROAD AMPLIFICATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALONG 30W/31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC OFF W AFRICA NEAR 11N15W ALONG 9N15W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N26W 9N40W 5N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-29W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-30W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RATHER EXTENSIVE UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS CENTERED NEAR 27N84W DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 90W AND INTO THE UPPER LOW ON THE S SIDE AND GENERATING A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF
27N88W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE CONUS COVERING THE N GULF TO TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 24N TO INLAND OVER W CUBA BETWEEN
80W-84W ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE N INTO THE FAR SE GULF LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ON SUN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE SE BAHAMAS DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO JUST NE OF ROATAN ISLAND OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN TRADE WIND CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN COVERS MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS DOMINATED THE AREA W OF 58W.
FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W 24N54W TO 20N55W AND WAS AMPLIFYING WITH TIME. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 29N30W DOMINATED THE AREA E OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 28N73W SW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ANDROS ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W.
MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND. THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING LOW WERE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF 23N71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS FANNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED IN THIS GENERAL AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N69W. FURTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH
32N42W TO 25N50W TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N58W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E AND SE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 45W AND 58W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N27W
25N38W TO 22N48W.


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