Friday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

AXNT20 KNHC 192353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N25W 6N32W 7N39W. RESUMING NEAR
6N43W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ THAT HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED A FEW DEGREES BACK FROM 10N39W TO
1N41W DUE TO ASCAT AND MODEL DATA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN 21W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN FOUND
EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ONLY AREAS OF
WEAK DISTURBANCE ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR SW
BASIN RESPECTIVELY. ON THE FIRST AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W EXTENDING SE
AND THEN S ALONG 28N87W 25N88W. A WEAK CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT IS
NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
25 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 27N. BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 26N BETWEEN 89W AND
94W. ON THE FAR SW BASIN...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
22N95W TO VERACRUZ NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 22N W
OF 95W. 20 KT TO 25 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN TO DISSIPATE AND
SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR THE
ANA MARIA CAYS TO TURNEFFE ISLANDS JUST EAST OF BELIZE NEAR
17N88W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 85W FROM 16N TO 20N. LOWER PRESSURE VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 1012 MB CONTINUE IN THIS REGION...AND ALSO
POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE DISSIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANALYZED
NEAR 17N86W AT 1800 UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 16N63W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
10N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N69W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE IS OVER THE NW ATLC AND SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 32N57W
CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N41W
MOVING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICK. THIS FEATURE HAS LEFT BEHIND THE
DISSIPATING 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS LAST ANALYZED
NEAR 25N46W AT 1800 UTC. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N20W EXTENDING RIDGE AXIS TO NEAR 20N36W. DRY AND STABLE
AIR IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...PROVIDING RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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