Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Friday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 9N31W TO 2N33W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 3N44W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES JUST W OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 18N TO 15N13W SWD ACROSS THE GUINEA COAST TO 8N17W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N17W ALONG 4N24W 8N41W 5N51W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 21W-26W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST N OF 30N BETWEEN 85W-90W MAINLY ACROSS ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 87W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXTENDING N INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SE GULF IS DUE TO ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTER ASSOCIATED
WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE NOW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING N FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1016 MB HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI...AND DRY AIR ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND THE WRN AND SRN SIDES OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF AS
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NW WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW ATLC ACROSS WRN CUBA TO NW HONDURAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS PARALLEL
AND 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N TO CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP ACROSS CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF PUERTO RICO. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NW INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE SW ATLC WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM NEAR 30N74W TO WRN CUBA NEAR
23N80W. THIS AREA LIES UNDER A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W. THE COMBINATION OF THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FORCING IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF CUBA TO 25N APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE N TO 29N BETWEEN 66W-79W. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE N OR NNE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS TO THE NE CENTERED NEAR 30N65W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N42W 25N48W TO A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
22N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 34N24W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N OF 24N CENTERED NEAR 29N28W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E OF SPAIN ACROSS WRN AFRICA TO NEAR 21N32W.


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