Friday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W TO 1N49W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO SHOWS A GOOD INVERTED-V STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL. THE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 42W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM E OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N75W TO 11N78W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 15N W OF 73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND ACROSS GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE ATLC NEAR 11N16W CONTINUING SW TO 6N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FORM THIS POINT ALONG 3N30W 2N40W 3N45W. THEN...IT RESUMES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N49W TO 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVES OUT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...GUINEA...AND NORTHERN LIBERIA E OF 24W FROM 3N-10N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. AT SURFACE...A 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NE BASIN NEAR 28N85W. THIS BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS NOTICED OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN WATERS OF CUBA INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 22N E OF 95W. OTHERWISE...A VERY RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...GENERATING
5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE TEXAS COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND A TROPICAL WAVE NE OF COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 73W. THE NORMAL EASTERLY TRADES HAVE BEEN REPLACED FOR BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE CONVECTION REGION W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ELSEWHERE OUT OF THE CONVECTION REGION...LEAVING THE AREA RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS S IF HISPANIOLA AND N OF HONDURAS. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA TO 100 NM EAST. THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS SE IN THE NEXT 56 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 32N55W 2761W TO 25N68W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50/100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. IN THE MEAN TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 35N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N30W.


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