HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 31

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

WTNT31 KNHC 052035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS APPROACHING GREAT INAGUA IN THE BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 73.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN. THE GOVERNMENT
OF CUBA HAS ALSO CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING IN GUANTANAMO TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. TOMAS IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN SOME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TOMAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS DATA IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HAITI SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN


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