HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 31

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

WTNT41 KNHC 052059
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE TOMAS HAS BEEN DISRUPTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY HAVE BEEN DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT TOMAS
HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY HAVING SOME OF ITS CIRCULATION PASS OVER THE
HIGHER TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HAITI. THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS
62 KT WITH PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT THE SAME. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT AND THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS.

AS TOMAS PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY...IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES AND HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO
REINTENSIFY. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECTED VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STABLE/DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY
RAPID WEAKENING. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM/GFDL MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. ALTERNATIVELY...IF THE INNER CORE OF TOMAS DOES NOT
QUICKLY REORGANIZE...THE SYSTEM MAY SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM
HERE ON IN. WHILE THE FORECAST HERE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT DAY 4...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT INSTEAD
THE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER INTERACTING
WITH THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 35/12...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO
ITS EAST AND A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME
SPEED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 H AND NEARLY ALL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. HOWEVER...BEYOND 36 H...THE MODEL SUITE
SHOWS A TREMENDOUS DIVERGENCE THAT FALLS INTO TWO FACTIONS. THE
NORTHERN GROUP...WITH MEMBERS AT FIVE DAYS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...INCLUDE THE HWRF/GFDL/NOGAPS MODELS. THE ECMWF
LIKELY WOULD HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPLICITLY INCLUDED HERE...BUT IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AFTER DAY THREE. THE
SOUTHERN GROUP...WITH MEMBERS AT FIVE DAYS JUST NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET. THE FORECAST TRACK
CHOSEN LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER BUNCH AND IS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS AN UNREALISTIC PREDICTION...AND
SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT ALMOST GOES WITHOUT
SAYING...THE EXTENDED FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-
THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 20.3N 73.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 72.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 23.9N 71.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 24.8N 70.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 25.4N 69.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 67.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 10/1800Z 27.0N 61.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN


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