Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Tropical Storm Irene Latest Advisory

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM CONNECTICUT THROUGH MAINE. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER PARTS OF BAYS AND INLETS.
NEAR THE COAST...THESE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES... FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 74.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...
AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT...IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAUGUE VIRGINIA... INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR NEW YORK CITY THIS MORNING...AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM. GROTON CONNECTICUT RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H.

BATTERY PARK NEW YORK CITY HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A TOTAL WATER LEVEL NEAR 8.6 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
WATER LEVELS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN
THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES...205 KM...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...EXPECTED BY NOON SUNDAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...WATER LEVEL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 68
MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4.6 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS OCCURRED SO FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

=======================================================

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 76.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE OBSERVING SITE AT OREGON INLET NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND
MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05
INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 76.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FROM MERRIMACK RIVER NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF IRENE MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 730 AM EDT...1130 UTC. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF IRENE AT LANDFALL WAS 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CATEGORY ONE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 84 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 954.0 MB...28.17 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H. A STORM SPOTTER IN STACY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 93 MPH...150 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. A NOAA BUOY IN ONSLOW BAY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
963.1 MB...28.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 76.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WEATHERFLOW AUTOMATED
STATION REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A GUST
TO 64 MPH...104 KM/H AT THE FORT MACON STATE PARK NEAR ATLANTIC
BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
NEW YORK...AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 AM EDT AND 300 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
==============================

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG
ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H... AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE AMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURE BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO DRUM POINT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA
TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT
NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE... DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE AMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN CATEGORY TWO AND THREE AS IT REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST BY LATE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE... DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINA...EASTERN MARYLAND... DELAWARE...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...LONG ISLAND...WESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST BY LATE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICALSTORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH...104 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

========================================================
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF NASSAU
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 76.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATE FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.


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