Hurricane Katia Latest Advisory

By: National Hurricane Center / WCTV PinPoint Weather Team
By: National Hurricane Center / WCTV PinPoint Weather Team

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.7N 47.7W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1960 MI...3160 KM WSW OF GLASGOW SCOTLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST. KATIA IS RACING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH...85 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM CANADIAN BUOY 44140 NEAR THE CENTER OF KATIA IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY...AND COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND DISRUPT TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER PUBLIC SERVICES. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN EUROPE SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE AT WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT U.S. NEW ENGLAND AREAS...ATLANTIC CANADA...AND BERMUDA TODAY....AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE BRITISH ISLES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 50 TO 100 MILLIMETERS...2 TO 4 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF SCOTLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON KATIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 62.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

==========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 65.8W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

========================================================
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...KATIA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 68.8W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATIA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND ONLY
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

=========================
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...KATIA MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 69.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER
KATIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS KATIA BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/FRANKLIN

============================
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011

...KATIA TURNING NORTHWARD BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 70.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KATIA WILL MOVE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF THE
CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 67 MPH WITH A GUST TO
83 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...AND EAST-FACING
BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
=====================================

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011

...KATIA TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 69.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KATIA WILL MOVE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF KATIA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH WITH
A GUST TO 59 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...AND EAST-FACING
BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
=============================
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

...KATIA EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 67.2W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF KATIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

========================

HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

...KATIA WEAKENS TO CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH...SEVERE RIP CURRENT RISK
CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 66.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF KATIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST THOUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD BEGIN BY
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
====================================

UPDATE: 9/5 @ 11:30 PM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ARE THE MAIN HAZARD ALONG U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 64.4W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

--------------------------------------------

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KATIA HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
BECAME MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE WARMED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO
6.0/115 KT AT 0000 UTC. DESPITE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE APPEARANCE
OF THE EYE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
ARE STILL 6.2/122 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115
KT...MAKING KATIA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9...A TOUCH SLOWER
THAN NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
UNCHANGED. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN 48 TO
72 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL ALLOW KATIA TO MOVE BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
AFTER THAT...A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS KATIA GETS CAUGHT IN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING DURING THE PAST FEW CYCLES AND ARE NOW IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF KATIA ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...PERHAPS DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AS THE
MAJOR HURRICANE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SLOW WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS KATIA MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS BASED ON THE
OBSERVED STRENGTHENING AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. KATIA IS
NOW FORECAST TO BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5...AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND OVER 20-21C
WATERS BY THAT TIME.

DRIFTING BUOY 41855...WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 20 N MI NORTHEAST OF
THE EYE OF KATIA AT 0000 UTC...REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952
MB.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE: 9/5 @ 5:15 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 63.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATIA.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
------------------------

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KATIA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE
INFRARED PRESENTATION IS LAGGING A BIT AND SHOWS A THINNING OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
RAISED TO 100 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER...BUT WITH THE CONVECTION LACKING SYMMETRY AND A COOLING EYE
IN THE LAST FEW IMAGES...I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO RAISE THE INTENSITY
ANY HIGHER.

THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS ABOUT 310/10 KT...AND KATIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS NEARLY STRAIGHT TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.
FAIRLY SHARP RE-CURVATURE IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS AROUND DAY
3...AND THEY ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES THE
CENTER ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS
WAS THE CASE EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS STILL GREATER-THAN-NORMAL
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF
AGREEMENT ON WHEN KATIA WILL BE SCOOPED UP BY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE SPED
UP A BIT AND THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...SO THE UNCERTAINTY HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NEW
FORECAST IS A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 96-HOUR POINT TOWARD
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND STILL LIES NEAR THE
UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE. ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST WITH KATIA EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY LESS
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
ADDITION...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...AND THIS COULD ALSO LIMIT STRENGTHENING.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS IS SHOWING KATIA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY
5...BUT SINCE IT IS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS IT IS PROBABLY
SHOWING THIS A LITTLE TOO SOON.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE: 9/5 @ 6:30 am

HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 62.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE: 9/5 @ 6:30 am
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011

THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF KATIA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES...WITH A NET DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION NOTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN EYE THAT WAS
EVIDENT EARLIER IS NO LONGER APPARENT...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT DRY AIR HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT...WITH A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW SINK TO THE
NORTHEAST. A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB IS LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 85 KT.

THE CENTER OF KATIA HAS BEEN WOBBLING. SMOOTHING OF RECENT FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/10. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW KATIA ROUNDING THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF BERMUDA...HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FURTHER WESTWARD PROGRESS IS LIKELY TO BE BLOCKED AS KATIA IS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. ONCE KATIA GAINS ENOUGH
LATITUDE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE YESTERDAY AND NOW FAVORS A RECURVATURE SCENARIO ROUGHLY ALONG
70W...WITH EVEN THE LEFT-LEANING UKMET/ECMWF MODELS NOW SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW QUICKLY KATIA WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
MAJOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72
HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS MUCH FASTER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...KATIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT COULD INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THIS TIME ARE LOW MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A LOWERING OF THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WARMING ALOFT. AFTER 96 HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY OF KATIA TO A STRONG GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 23.9N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.0N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 26.3N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 27.5N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.4N 70.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 35.5N 69.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

...CATEGORY TWO KATIA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 655 MI...1060 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY MONDAY. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

================================

1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

...KATIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 59.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATIA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND KATIA COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF KATIA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 90 MPH...144
KM/H AND A GUST TO 107 MPH...173 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41044 IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. SWELLS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

---------------------------------------------------------

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CENTER OF KATIA MOVED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 41044...WHICH MEASURED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 78 KT...A GUST TO 93 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 968.3 MB.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 65 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 85 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...KATIA IS INITIALIZED AS AN 85-KT HURRICANE. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...YET THE INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION VERY SYMMETRICAL.

KATIA APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10 KT. ALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE ON THIS FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL ARE A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH BY DAY 5. MUCH OF THIS DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IN 4-5 DAYS...WHICH THE GFS SHOWS ABOUT 300 N MI FARTHER TO THE EAST AND DEEPER THAN IN THE ECMWF AND UKMET AT DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND STILL KEEPS THE HURRICANE AT OR EAST OF 72W.

DESPITE THE QUICK STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...ADT ESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 85 KT...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE CYCLE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS GOING TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.

THE SHIPS MODEL IS STILL DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATIA...BUT THE HURRICANE MAY BE BENEFITING FROM UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW JETS TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND KATIA COULD STILL STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 21.9N 59.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.9N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 24.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 25.2N 64.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 26.2N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 30.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 72.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 58.5W

ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND KATIA IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41044...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES...35 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF KATIA RECENTLY REPORTED 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 69 MPH...111 KM/H...AND 29 FOOT SEAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. SWELLS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

KATIA REMAINS IN A NEARLY STEADY STATE. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO CONSIST OF A RATHER INDISTINCT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHICH HAS BEEN PULSATING SOMEWHAT FREQUENTLY. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES
SHOWED THE EXISTENCE OF A MID-LEVEL EYE THAT HAS BEEN LESS DEFINED IN THE LOW-LEVELS. WITH ESSENTIALLY NO STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO REPORT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS THE SAME AS AT 0000 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT. CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER...WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN STALLING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A MORE CONDUCIVE UPPER AIR FORECAST AHEAD OF KATIA THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION BEGINNING
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN AGAIN...THE FORECAST REDUCTION IN SHEAR BY THIS TIME HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUALLY UNDERFORECAST THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP THIS IN MIND AND REPRESENT A MEASURED APPROACH... BLENDING THE MORE RELIABLE STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATING MODEST STRENGTHENING AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH STILL FORECASTS KATIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

LOCATING THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A TIMELY AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO ESTABLISH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS KATIA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO LIFT OUT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THEY ALSO FORECAST A WEAKNESS OVER THIS REGION TO REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
KATIA TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AND SLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LONGER-TERM TRACK OF KATIA SEEMS DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LEE AND A PROCESSION
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BOTH OF WHICH THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DIFFERENTLY TO VARYING DEGREES. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE...ALONG WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE
SPREAD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK AT THIS LONGER RANGE IS OF SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE SPREAD...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

-----------------------------------------------

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 57.4W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KATIA COULD RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 56.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KATIA COULD RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

========================================================
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2011

...HURRICANE KATIA EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 54.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A GENERAL TRACK
BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...KATIA WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BUT KATIA COULD BEGIN STRENGTHENING ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

=========================

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 53.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF SPEED IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

==========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.


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