Monday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO GUATEMALA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW BASIN FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 74W-86W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 74W. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N52W TO 9N58W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL/S WEST ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 9N47W TO 2N46W. CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED AND REMAINS ATTACHED TO ITCZ.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA IN WEST AFRICA... ENTERING THE EAST ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W 5N40W TO 7N45W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N50W AND CONTINUING SW TO 5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF W OF 86W. AT SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW BASIN CENTERED NEAR 28N93W WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM AROUND THE LOW CENTER. TO THE NNW OF THIS LOW...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING ACROSS THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI ...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30W94W TO 30N89W TO 30N86W. OTHER THAN A LIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ALONG THE TROUGH...NO ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED NEAR THE AXIS. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N87W. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW SITTING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DISCUSSED ABOVE. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY W OF 74W N OF 13N. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS DISRUPTED REGULAR TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SSE CONVERGING WINDS E OF 75W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SE COASTAL WATERS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
BASIN E OF 70W N OF 12N. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD/ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N52W 27N55W 25N61W BECOMING A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 25N73W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OBSERVED TO THE ESE OF THE FRONT...ALONG A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND S WEST ATLC. THIS FEATURE REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG
27N46W 22N48W 21N56W 21N64W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO NOTED NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED NEAR 27N47. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 37W-44W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N27W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.


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