Monday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

AXNT20 KNHC 082352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N45W TO 15N47W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AS
DEPICTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/1300 UTC. MID-LEVEL
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ALSO INDICATE THE WAVE LOCATES ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL...700 MB...RIDGE THAT COVERS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N13W 05N24W 06N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 04W-11W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
20W-25W...AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
SW OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS EVENING FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SURFACE HIGH AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE NE GULF COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W WITH INFLUENCE SPREADING WESTWARD
TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTWARD TO 50W. BENEATH THIS DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EXTENDS SW TO 16N67W THEN BECOMES A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 13N72W. EARLIER INDICATIONS FROM AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 08/1440 UTC SHOW CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OCCURRING WITH A NEW LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
14N71W WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-73W OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
75W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERALL
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OFF
THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS NEAR 41N70W AND DIPS TROUGHING TO 30N
BETWEEN 62W-75W. THIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N67W
TO BEYOND 32N64W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT. QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE W ATLC IS THE REMNANTS OF
TOMAS...ANALYZED AS A 998 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N64W. WINDS
SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER REMAIN GALE FORCE AS IT MOVES NE AND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 26N62W
23N61W TO 19N64W WHERE IS TRANSITIONS STATIONARY ACROSS THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT...REMAINING N
OF 17N. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N48W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N41W THROUGH THE UPPER LOW TO 30N52W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EAST OF THE AXIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-31N
BETWEEN 37W-45W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATES ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N36W. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 18N E OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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