Monday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

AXNT20 KNHC 160003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N25W 5N35W 4N46W 3N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 11W-17W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
19W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19W-26W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
JUST N OF THE ITCZ FROM 15N53W TO 5N52W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 52W-55W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 49W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO SE
TEXAS ALONG 29N91W 27N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 92W-94W. ONLY 5-10 KT
VARIABLE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT...WHILE 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W ALSO HAS 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE GULF S OF 28N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ARE N OF 28N ESPECIALLY E OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N TO JAMAICA. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WNW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE NW VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1000 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
32N48W 29N49W 25N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
28N-31N BETWEEN 47W-50W. AN OLD DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 24N47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 28N13W
28N20W 32N24W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N
OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 60W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE WITH ITS TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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