Monday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

AXNT20 KNHC 222344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N13W 04N34W 05N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN
03W-10W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF IVORY COAST AND
LIBERIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 22W-37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 07N55W TO 15N50W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN
43W-53W...AND FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 54W62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
N-NE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS COASTLINE
WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LOCATING ALOFT. THIS IS
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW
GULF AND SOUTHERN MEXICO S OF 20N. GENERALLY 15-20 KT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN THIS EVENING. LATER IN
THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTRODUCE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT INTO NW GULF LATE THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF STRONG N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLC WESTWARD TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA THEN NW TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. LOCATED BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 14N83W TO CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 09N80W. LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF A
LINE FROM 14N83W TO 11N75W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NE TRADES...
WHICH LOCATE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND N-NE ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD...
OVERALL GRADUAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS
AN EXPANSIVE 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 38N66W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH NE TO E
WINDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS MORE PRONOUNCED...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N52W THEN NW TO
BEYOND 32N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED BETWEEN 20W-40W WHERE A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N26W TO 23N38W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THUS ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT AND MORE
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
38W-46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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