Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Monday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W...ABOUT 110 NM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER AND THROUGH THE LOW
CENTER TO JUST W OF JAMAICA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 76W-83W...S OF THE SYSTEM FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 77W-83W...AND NE OF ENE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 67W-75W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOCUSED
ON THE LOW CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS N OR NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE WAVE DOES CORRESPOND WITH A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N54W TO 10N60W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL/S WEST ATLC WHERE A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 17N ALONG 16N10W ACROSS GUINEA TO NEAR 8N18W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W ALONG 7N30W 4N40W 2N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH JUST INLAND AND PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA TO ERN TEXAS...AS 0F 2100 UTC. ACCORDING TO RADAR DATA THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
OVER NE FLORIDA...SE LOUISIANA...AND ERN TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W...AND DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE MOISTURE IS AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N AND DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N82W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. WIDESPREAD AND SOMETIMES STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING JAMAICA...CENTRAL AND ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MORE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAS RECENTLY FLARED UP OVER NE NICARAGUA AND ERN HONDURAS...AS WELL AS NE COLOMBIA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MANY OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC NEAR 29N72W. TO THE IMMEDIATE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W ALONG 28N54W 25N60W WEAKENING TO NEAR 25N66W WHERE IT BECOMES A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE MAIN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS. A 1013 MB LOW IS NEAR 27N48W MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
NE WITH A BURST OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS CENTER. A 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT ALONG 27N43W 22N48W 22N59W 21N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN 35W-44W...AND
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 44W-70W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.


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