Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Hurricane Forecast: Another Busy Atlantic Season

By: Rob Nucatola, James Buechele Email
By: Rob Nucatola, James Buechele Email
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By: James Buechele
May 23, 2013

UPDATE 6:23 p.m.

The 2013 NOAA outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season is out. But officials want people to pay attention not just to the number of storms predicted.

"The news today really is not about percentages and ranges," said Dr. Kathryn Sullivan acting NOAA administrator. "The important news today for all of us is preparedness."

Although forecasters can't predict where these storms will hit until they form, meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Tallahassee say now is the time to prepare your family for the worst.

"Hurricanes provide a variety of hazards not just strong wind not only storm surge at the coast but very heavy rain inland and also the potential for tornadoes," said meteorologist Kelly Godsey.


By: Rob Nucatola
May 23, 2013

The NOAA Outlook is out...

For the six-month hurricane season, beginning June 1, there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

According to NOAA, three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season.

These are:

A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;

Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea;

and El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

So the table is set for what could be a BUSY season... We'll be here for you the entire time, guiding, tracking, warning, and going through it all with you!


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