Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Saturday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 07/0000 UTC...THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT TOMAS HAS
RE-STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE STATUS WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 25.0N 69.7W. TOMAS IS MOVING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
TOMAS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM TOMAS IS EMBEDDED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE ATLANTIC SESSION. THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COVERS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20 4N30W 6N40W BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 7N43W. WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE ITCZ REGION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE ITCZ FROM 18N35W TO 13N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 15N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N46W TO 6N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A CONTINENTAL DRY AND COLD AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER THE GULF...AS MARINE OBS AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A MORE RELAXED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING A NORTHERLY 5 KT TO 15 KT SFC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD S OF 27N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING OVER THE NE BASIN. AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS...EXPECT THE SFC WIND FIELD TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BARAHONA IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N70W...EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE COAST OF LA GUAJIRA IN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE IS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS DRAWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA INTO A GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN PRODUCING BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 63W AND 72W N OF 12N. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE W OF 74W. WITHIN THIS REGION A REMNANT CLOUD/ SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ALONG 18N75W 13N78W 9N81W.
THIS FLOW IS BANKING UP SCATTER WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW BASIN W OF 74W S OF 12N. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W AND CONTINUES S ALONG 26N70W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. DRY NW SFC WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS HURRICANE TOMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND TOMAS TRACKS NNE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE W ATLANTIC. FARTHER EAST... LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 25 NM OF A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE ANALYZED ALONG 22N55W 25N61W 30N64W.
WATER VAPOR INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N50W SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 28N49W 23N49W 19N51W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE NE OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N39W TO 27N41W WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.


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