Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Saturday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS NOT DEFINITIVE ON THE WAVE LOCATION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N46W TO 5N48W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE WAVE AMPLIFICATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND AFRICA AT 16N00W TO 14N10W TO THE COAST AT 13N17W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W 8N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND AFRICA FROM 12N-16N E OF 13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 8W-14W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N88W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 22N. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA AT 29N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N85W TO 19N90W TO 16N92W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA...AND INLAND HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE BAHAMAS AT 28N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N75W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 76W-80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE N OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 66W-71W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N36W TO 24N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
48W-55W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N24W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.


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