Saturday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OFF WEST AFRICA THIS MORNING AND WAS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...ANALYZED FROM 18N17W TO 9N19W. THE WAVE MOVES AHEAD OF A MOISTURE SURGE ON TPW...STILL INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 18N41W TO 10N38W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT DUE TO A DRY
SLOT EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 370 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 14N53W TO 8N56W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ANALYZED FROM 21N89W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 17N92W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS THAT COVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA. THEN...IT ALLOWS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA...RESUMING NEAR 9N19W TO 8N25W TO 10N32W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS NEAR 7N39W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N48W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 26W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE NEW ADDED TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER OMEGA RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE CONUS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW TO N CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE FAR W GULF GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 23N TO INLAND OVER
S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ALSO HELPING WITH THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
29N...ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE NW ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION... FROM N OF TAMPA BAY NEAR 29N82W TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BECOMING REINFORCED FROM STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SW FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLC COAST THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N67W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO EASTERN HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 64W-72W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A 1008 MB LOW
IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN THE COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR 11N83W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 76W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW COVERS THE NW ATLC CENTERED S OF NEWFOUNDLAND SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS STATIONARY THROUGH 31N59W ALONG 27N70W TO A
1015 MB LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES W INTO FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N33W...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. IN THE MEAN TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST ATLC N OF THE FRONT AND LOW.


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