Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Saturday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE REMNANT LOW OF DON IS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT HAS MOVED INLAND WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO S OF 27N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM 19N49W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N45W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
IS WELL OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WARRANTS WATCHING AS SOME MODELS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 37W-50W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 23N30W TO 13N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS N OF 18N. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-MID MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...ANALYZED FROM 23N83W TO 12N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. BROAD LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE DATA. THE WAVE IS JUST N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED ON THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA ENTERING THE ATLC ALONG 12N16W TO 10N20W TO 11N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 12N30W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N34W TO 13N44W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN S OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N47W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA IN SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 30W-60W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW OF DON IS NOW INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT HAS MOVED INLAND WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO S OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NE TO SW ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS. THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OF 84W WITH SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N
E OF 68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING...ANCHORED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW TO NEAR 28N65W.


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