Sunday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE...BUT CAN BE DETECTED IN MODEL ANALYSES. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N50W TO 5N55W MOVING W 10-15 KT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY INDICATED A CLASSIC INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE WAVE LIES W OF A RIDGE OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-13N W OF 48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT IS MOVING W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 50 NM ACROSS THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLC OCEAN NEAR 12N16W TO 7N20W TO 6N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N25W ALONG 5N30W 6N40W 4N45W TO 6N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF WEST AFRICA ACROSS
GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...AND NORTHERN LIBERIA E OF 17W FROM 5N-11N. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50/100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N81W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 24N BETWEEN 82W-86W. ALOFT... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AROUND THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 17N W OF 84W. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W/83W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ACROSS
THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE SRN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NW OUT
OF THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER...ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N68W TO 27N74W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-69W. TO THE SE OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS NEAR 23N57W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N56W TO
19N56W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NE OF THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 30N40W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWER ARE
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 HIGH NEAR 31N27W PROVIDING


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