Sunday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ANALYZED FROM 13N44W TO 5N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 76W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND JUST TO THE E OF OF AN UPPER LOW
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED ALONG 92W/93W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/ CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA ALONG 19N10W THEN S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 127B16W TO 11N16W WITH THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUING ALONG 8N35W TO 9N45W THEN RESUMES NEAR 9N51W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 11N15W AND S OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NE MEXICO COVERING THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 95W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXTENDS E INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WITH A 1018 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM NAPLES TO PENSACOLA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA BETWEEN 89W-92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 95W BY MON MORNING THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS MEXICO TUE. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 18N81W COVERING THE AREA W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N83W ALONG 17N79W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 20N78W AND INLAND
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CUBA WITH ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA...S OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE...INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-76W HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W REACHING W CARIBBEAN ON MON AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS SE CARIBBEAN TUE REACHING
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI.

SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...POTENTIALLY GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 30N TO 63W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THIS UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF
THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N59W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 22N58W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS TO NEAR 21N68W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 25N58W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HAITI. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 400 NM WSW FROM THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 28N72W ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 28N.


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