Sunday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 2100 UTC SUN...AND TO TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 0000 UTC MON...WITH A CURRENT POSITION NEAR 27.5N 78.1W...ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W...WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT...INCREASING UP TO 20 FT IN 24 HOURS. BRET IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION ON MONDAY. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 19N26W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS STILL CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ANALYZED FROM 22N52W TO 12N54W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON TPW. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THE
MOMENT DUE TO A DRY SLOT EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W S OF 22N MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 67W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER MAURITANIA AFRICA...ENTERING THE EAST ATLC ALONG 20N16W 18N22W 10N25W 6N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N35W ALONG 5N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N E OF 30W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO... CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N W OF 94W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA...
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 26N
BETWEEN 84W-92W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 75W...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 67W GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 67W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW DOTTING THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED NE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE ALONG 31N56W 30N64W 31N70W 29N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 62W...AND WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY STRONG 1036 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES
NEAR 42N31W...LEAVING THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING.


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