Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Sunday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE
SOUTH OF 9N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. THIS
POSITION IS TO THE EAST OF THE 19/0600 UTC BULLETIN. CURRENT DATA SHOW THAT WE WERE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST WITH OUR POSITION.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...STARTING NEAR ANTIGUA/MONTSERRAT TO 14N63W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TOLOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 16N58W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF AN AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED...AND THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED COMPARATIVELY. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN EASTERN CUBA ALONG 78W FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS POSITION IS TO THE EAST OF THE 19/0600 UTC BULLETIN. CURRENT DATA SHOW THAT WE WERE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST WITH OUR POSITION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 19N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 16N7W 18N13W 10N18W 8N23W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 8N23W 9N31W...INTO THE BORDER AREA OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA THAT IS NEAR 3N52W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N91W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE PART OF MEXICO THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA-TO-MEXICO TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 73W COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 26N82W 23N90W 19N93W. EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING IN GUATEMALA APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND EASTERN
PANAMA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W IN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO 15N69W. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...STARTING NEAR ANTIGUA/MONTSERRAT TO 14N63W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 16N58W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF AN AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED...AND THAT PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED COMPARATIVELY. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITH THE TRADEWIND EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N76W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
A TROUGH IS ALONG 30N58W 27N65W 23N71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W 28N60W 25N70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 31N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N50W TO 27N60W 25N70W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N47W 28N56W 25N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N55W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N66W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NEAR 28N. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 45W. ONE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N19W JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N33W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N31W TO 30N40W TO 27N52W.


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