Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Sunday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG 15W FROM 11N-18N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 21N50W TO 12N48W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 18N-21N.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ANALYZED ALONG 61W S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N57W
TO 14N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON THE SURFACE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS AT 17/0900 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA ALONG 24N5W SW INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W TO 14N23W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N26W TO 5N38W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 12N-15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF 8N E OF 26W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 29W-37W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N
BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SE KANSAS AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS DISTORTING THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA WHERE IT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NE GULF TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. AT 17/0900 UTC THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...REMNANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NO LONGER ON THE SURFACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER
S MEXICO. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 87W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MON NIGHT THEN REDEVELOP AS A WEAK HIGH CENTER OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU AS THE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE GREAT PLAIN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD E/W ELONGATED UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 14N76W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM GUADALOUPE W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES GIVING THE ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 64W WITH HEAVIER RAIN MOVING ACROSS BARBADOS AND WILL CROSS THE WINDWARD ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA TO SE NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 14N OTHERWISE LEAVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU FOLLOWED BY INCREASING TRADES AS ATLC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 17/0900 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W ALONG 26N66W TO A 1014 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N79W CONTINUING OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 71W-79W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N45W SW ALONG 24N62W TO A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N79W THEN W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRACK IN A GENERAL W DIRECTION MON THROUGH TUE POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WED. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A
DISSIPATING WARM FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 27N TUE THROUGH THU. W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MON NIGHT ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU.


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