TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

WTNT42 KNHC 182056
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A RAGGED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION HAD TAKEN PLACE.
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. USING A BLEND OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND
DROPSONDE WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT
55 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO BRET HAS A NARROW WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE REACHING A LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND IT COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY
EARLY TOMORROW OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...IVCN.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF AROUND 030/6.
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. BRET SHOULD BE
STEERED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN...AND SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 28.3N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 29.2N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 30.4N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 31.5N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 35.5N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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