TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 24

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

WTNT31 KNHC 040243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING MAYAGUANA AND THE INAGUAS...AS WELL
AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART


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